KOSPI Tops 8,500 — What's Driving the Volatility
The KOSPI opened up about 1.3%, breaking through the 8,500 level and setting a new intraday record. Foreign investors sold roughly 2 trillion won worth of shares, but buying from retail and institutional investors offset the outflow. The KOSDAQ, which had surged more than 8% the previous day, took a breather, slipping around 1% to the low 910s as foreign investors booked profits.
With the second half of the year underway, the National Pension Service's rebalancing remains a recurring topic. The fund's estimated domestic equity weighting stands at about 30%, and even using its full strategic and tactical leeway, the upper bound comes to roughly 28.8%. Depending on the KOSPI level, selling pressure is estimated at around 27 trillion won at the 8,000 mark, about 51 trillion won at 8,500, and around 70 trillion won at 9,000 — though since most of the fund's holdings are large-cap stocks, analysts expect a gradual, staggered sell-down rather than a single large dump to avoid hurting its own returns.
The underlying driver of the heightened volatility is said to be the sheer speed of the KOSPI's climb. While it once took 86 days to move from 3,000 to 4,000, the more recent legs from 6,000 to 7,000 and 7,000 to 8,000 each took just 13 days. On top of that, the growing assets under management of single-stock leveraged ETFs tracking Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix mean that automatic rebalancing — buying or selling additional spot and futures positions whenever the underlying moves — is amplifying swings further. The advice was to scale back leveraged products and stay patient, keeping the bat ready but waiting for a good pitch.