Markets · 2026-06-30
KOSPI Breaks 8,500, KOSDAQ Takes a Breather
The KOSPI rose about 1.3%, breaking through the 8,500 level and marking a new intraday all-time high. Foreign investors sold a net roughly won 2 trillion, but buying from individuals and institutions offset the outflow and pushed the index higher.
The KOSDAQ, which had surged more than 8% the previous day, pulled back about 1% and traded around the 911-point level. Foreign investors sold roughly won 250 billion, apparently locking in profits.
As of the morning session, Samsung Electronics rose about 2.7%, SK hynix turned positive, and Samsung Electro-Mechanics gained around 7%. Semiconductor-related materials, parts and equipment stocks were the clear drivers of the index gains.
National Pension Service Rebalancing Concerns for the Second Half
The National Pension Service's estimated domestic equity weighting currently stands at around 30%, already exceeding the 28.8% upper bound even after accounting for its strategic and tactical flexibility band (plus or minus 8 percentage points). With the second half of the year beginning in July, market watchers expect selling pressure from rebalancing to be unavoidable.
Estimates of the required selling amount vary widely by source, but analysts pegged the minimum at won 27 trillion with the KOSPI at 8,000, won 51-52 trillion at 8,500, more than won 70 trillion above 9,000, and up to won 120 trillion at 10,000. Fully utilizing the strategic and tactical flexibility band, however, could reduce these figures by 20-30%.
Because the pension fund's portfolio is concentrated in large-cap stocks, a sudden dump would hurt its own returns, so analysts expect it to sell gradually during periods of high volatility rather than all at once to minimize market impact. Selling pressure of roughly won 30-60 trillion is expected to unfold in stages within the current index trading band.
Still, panelists noted that such supply-demand concerns are a recurring short-term phenomenon seen in Japan and Taiwan during periods of rapid index gains, and have historically been overcome as fund flows shift and corporate earnings improve — suggesting investors should not be overly gripped by fear.