양형 예측 (lyn-sentencing-predictor)

lyn-sentencing-predictor answers the other question everyone facing a criminal case asks: how much. It combines the Korean Supreme Court Sentencing Commission's guideline tables with actual comparable judgments to place a case in the mitigated, basic, or aggravated band, then projects a sentencing range and the likelihood of a suspended sentence. It is published by attorney 이영남 at thechain.lawyer. Intake collects the sentencing factors that actually move the band — the offense, the amount of loss and which statutory bracket it falls into for property crimes, prior convictions, restitution, and whether a settlement with the victim has been reached — reusing anything already said in the conversation. The guideline table for that offense is then looked up, and precedent search through an MCP supplies what comparable defendants actually received. The analysis is written as IRAC: the issue, the governing sentencing rule, the application of special and general sentencing factors to this defendant, and a conclusion. The output is not a single number but a range plus a percentage estimate for a suspended sentence, broken into scenarios — settlement reached versus not, restitution completed versus partial — so the reader can see which of the remaining variables is worth the most, and the skill closes with the practical steps that most improve the odds. Its stated limit is part of the design: sentencing prediction cannot be accurate to a certainty, the actual sentence is within the court's discretion, and the skill is required to say so in every report. It is a reasoned estimate grounded in guidelines and precedent, not legal advice and not a promise.