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A daily market brief, published each morning. Markets, stocks, industry, economy, global, and policy — sorted by category.

Economy·2026-11-10

Fed Officials Send Mixed Signals Ahead of U.S. October CPI

The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October is scheduled to be released tonight. Because some survey results used as a comparison base are unavailable due to last year’s government shutdown, the month-over-month figure will take precedence over the year-over-year figure. The median market forecast was for headline CPI of 0.25% and core CPI of around 0.2%. UBS saw a possibility that inflation would come in somewhat above market expectations, reflecting the impact of oil prices, but forecast core CPI at about 0.23%. It said that declines in medical-service prices and increases in used-car prices were both being observed, making it necessary to examine the details. The key question was how services inflation would move, even if falling oil prices put downward pressure on inflation. Comments from Federal Reserve officials added to uncertainty over the path of interest rates. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said the Fed should acknowledge its failures in fulfilling its dual mandate of price stability and employment, and pointed to rising service prices unrelated to energy and tariffs as well as overheating risks from data-center investment. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said interest rates may be at or slightly below the neutral level, but that the December Federal Open Market Committee decision had not been made and he would focus on inflation risks. The probability of a rate hike in December was described as fluctuating between 70% and 80% in the market. The host noted that Fed officials were scheduled to speak repeatedly over the coming week, and that conflicting messages could confuse investors. Falling oil prices could ease rate-hike concerns, but both the CPI figures and Fed comments would need to be considered.

Economy·2026-11-09

U.S. CPI, PPI and Interest Rate Outlook in Focus

The U.S. Consumer Price Index for October is due Tuesday, followed by the Producer Price Index on Friday. Markets are watching how inflation could affect the interest rate path. Several Federal Open Market Committee members are also scheduled to speak this week, making policymakers’ views on December rates another variable alongside inflation. The probability of a December rate hike cited during a broadcast rose as high as 84%, fell to around 67%, and then climbed again, fluctuating sharply. Figures subsequently cited put it at around 80%. With rate expectations unsettled, the CPI reading and comments from Fed officials could add to market volatility. In South Korea, the unemployment rate and export data are due on November 11. With markets also focused on AI company earnings and progress on data center projects, it may remain difficult to gauge the direction of share prices based on macroeconomic data alone.

Economy·2026-11-06

Interest Rates and Foreign Fund Flows Key Variables for a Rebound

U.S. interest rates were identified as a key factor in determining the market's direction. Analysts said funds tend to flow into equities about two to three months after the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield peaks and begins to fall. If lower interest rates and stable oil prices persist, stocks such as Big Tech could rebound first, but on this day the deterioration in sentiment toward semiconductor stocks prevented positive factors from being fully reflected in share prices. Analysts also cited an assessment that U.K.-based funds accounted for a substantial portion of the foreign selling that has continued in the Korean market this year. One report estimated net sales by U.K.-based funds at about KRW 97 trillion from January to September, potentially driven by a desire to convert assets to cash ahead of changes to inheritance tax and pension rules in the U.K. If much of that selling has already run its course, the existing pressure from foreign investors could ease, though markets will need to watch whether deteriorating sentiment stemming from the U.S. creates a new source of selling. Analysts said market sentiment had swung to an extreme, with share prices failing to rise on positive news such as interest-rate cuts or the end of a war, while reacting sharply to negative news. With investors needing to consider interest rates and inflation alongside elections, AI investment, data center power supply and corporate earnings, it is more difficult than in the past to judge the market's direction. Changes in interest rates and whether AI investment is actually scaled back were cited as key to calming foreign selling and supporting a market recovery.