Leveraged ETF Distortion Aside, SK Hynix ADR News Fuels 4% KOSPI Rally

The KOSPI extended intraday gains to approach the 7,600 level, closing near 7,671 points, up nearly 5% from the previous session, while the KOSDAQ rose about 6% to pass 844 points. The won stabilized around 1,506 per dollar. Foreign investors were net sellers of KOSPI and KOSDAQ cash equities but net buyers in futures, while institutions bought across both markets.

However, the day's top names by trading value were again dominated by single-stock leveraged and inverse ETFs and SK Hynix futures-linked products, echoing the prior day's pattern when inverse and double-inverse products ranked first and second. Analysts noted the distortion: despite abundant positive semiconductor and AI ecosystem news plus SK Hynix listing optimism, the index gave back intraday gains before barely recovering.

The rally was broad, with virtually no decliners among the top 50-100 KOSPI names by market cap; Samsung Electronics rose 5-6% and SK Hynix gained about 2%, while nearly all large-cap KOSDAQ names except HLB and Peptron advanced. Still, the market's direction proved unstable, with more than 800 KOSPI-listed names higher at one point in the morning before a herd-like buy-the-buyers, sell-the-sellers mechanism reasserted itself in the afternoon.

Hosts described the current environment as a volatility regime in which a 4-5% daily KOSPI gain can still be followed by a roughly 3% pullback, calling it the new normal, with one host suggesting investors should recalibrate their sense of a 'flat' day to include swings of around minus 10%. Even so, the KOSPI's technical support around the 7,000 level was viewed as a positive sign.

U.S. stocks closed higher overnight, with the Nasdaq up about 1.3%, the S&P 500 up about 0.8%, and the Russell 2000 up about 1.3%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged roughly 3%, driving the broader advance.

After an early wobble, buying concentrated in semiconductors pushed indices higher through the session. Notably, flows broadened beyond chips to AI-adjacent names such as Meta, Tesla and SpaceX, after weeks of concern over excessive concentration in semiconductor stocks.

The 10-year Treasury yield pulled back from a recent high, and the dollar index weakened. Gold rose about 1.3% and bitcoin gained about 1.9%, with most major asset classes trading favorably alongside equities.

It later emerged that roughly $7.1 billion flowed into semiconductor-focused ETFs on Tuesday — the largest single-day inflow since the funds launched in 2001 — a flow pattern cited as one driver behind the rebound.

SK Hynix's Nasdaq ADR was priced at $149, roughly a 3.1% premium over Thursday's Korean-market closing price, marking what is described as the largest-ever U.S. IPO by a foreign company. Institutional demand was oversubscribed roughly sevenfold, with more than 500 institutions participating and the top 25 accounts alone taking 67% of allocated shares. The underlying stock jumped about 3% in after-hours trading in Korea on the news and added another 1-2% in Friday's regular session to trade around 2.22 million won.

ADR and domestic common shares cannot be converted into one another, and each ADR represents one-tenth of a domestic common share. Unlike Korea, U.S. markets set a separate opening price on listing day, with trading likely to begin around noon New York time, roughly 1 a.m. Korean time. SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won is reportedly set to ring the opening bell in person, and proceeds are expected to fund fab investment in Gwangju and South Jeolla, with related currency conversion seen as a contributing factor to the won's recent stability.

In biotech, Peptron and HLB both remained locked at limit-down for a second straight day. Peptron, whose long-acting peptide-based drug delivery platform had fueled hopes of an obesity-drug tie-up, tumbled after its CEO indicated at an industry event that the compound under joint research with Eli Lilly was not the widely anticipated tirzepatide. HLB hit limit-down after receiving its third Complete Response Letter from the U.S. FDA for liver cancer drug rivoceranib.

Contagion to other biotech names was limited, however. Alteogen actually gained 6-9%, and Protina surged by double digits intraday on news of a follow-on licensing deal with Samsung Biologics for AI-driven antibody drug candidate discovery. With the KOSDAQ having fallen into the low-700s, some of the buying was attributed to bargain-hunting at perceived lows. Hosts advised investors to size biotech positions conservatively given the difficulty of predicting individual pipeline outcomes compared with global pharma majors.

Separately, Samsung Electronics Chairman Lee Jae-yong drew a warm public reaction after reportedly canceling his schedule to personally pay respects, alone, at the funeral of a cleaning staff member who had worked more than 20 years at the Seocho office. Hosts noted the story has no bearing on the stock price but reflects a broader shift in how Korea's conglomerates carry themselves.

Meta announced plans to build a 1-gigawatt data center in Alberta, Canada, expandable to 1.8 gigawatts, and said it would roughly double its computing capacity to 14 gigawatts by next year — moves that helped dispel earlier concerns about scaled-back AI investment sparked by reports it was exploring leasing out spare compute.

Meta also said it will begin producing its in-house AI chip, codenamed Iris, co-designed with Broadcom, starting in September, and disclosed long-term supply agreements covering memory, storage and optical fiber with Samsung Electronics, SanDisk and Sumitomo Electric, respectively. It also unveiled its lower-cost model, Muse Spark 1.1, priced at roughly 25% of top-tier competitors' rates as part of an aggressive pricing push.

Individual chip stocks rallied broadly. Lam Research rose about 6%, Micron about 4.5%, AMD about 5.7%, Marvell about 5%, SanDisk about 7.6%, and Western Digital about 5%. Tesla gained more than 3%.

SK Hynix priced its American depositary receipts at $149 apiece, with each ADR representing one-tenth of a common share — about 3.1% above the prior close. The offering is expected to be the largest-ever U.S. listing by a foreign company, with demand reported at roughly seven times the offered size.

PepsiCo shares fell about 3% even after earnings topped estimates on lower interest expense, as investors focused elsewhere.

Analysts traced how AI-industry bottlenecks have cascaded sequentially: starting with Nvidia GPU shortages for training generative AI, moving to memory shortages, then CPU demand for inference, followed by TSMC-led advanced packaging, substrates (including upstream materials like CCL, copper foil, glass fiber, and glass substrates), MLCCs (Samsung Electro-Mechanics), power semiconductors, and inspection equipment, with optical communications and semiconductor equipment now flagged as the next beneficiaries and both surging on the day.

Bitgwa Electronics hit the daily upper limit, Daehan Optical Communication jumped about 23%, and Korea Advanced Materials gained about 19%. Hosts cautioned that while such cascading demand typically signals a genuine industry boom, past cycles, such as construction, cement, construction equipment, and building materials stocks all rising in sequence, eventually marked a market top; the key test, they said, is whether front-end demand itself begins to shrink, not merely whether the cascade has run its course.

The defense sector was the focus of an interview with LS Securities analyst Lee Jae-gwang. He attributed much of the recent underperformance in defense shares to a rotation of capital toward semiconductors, a pattern that persists whether chips rally or fall, compounded by a lack of major new order momentum and Korea's failed bid for Canada's submarine program, which weighed on sentiment.

Comparing enterprise value to order backlog, Hanwha Aerospace and Hanwha Systems trade at relatively higher multiples while LIG Nex1 and Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI) trade lower, suggesting the latter are undervalued on a backlog basis. On a forward-earnings valuation basis, however, the picture reverses, with Hanwha names looking cheaper, reflecting that their margins and earnings are already well reflected in results, whereas LIG Nex1 and KAI's order backlogs have not yet fully converted into earnings.

Lee advised against reading too much into quarterly defense earnings and instead urged investors to track order backlog trends as the key metric, noting that defense is a classic order-driven business where meaningful stock gains typically occur around major order/export announcements and again once those orders convert into confirmed earnings.

UBS said global memory sales reached about $74.6 billion in June, a monthly record, with NAND sales up roughly 40.7% month over month and DRAM sales around $48 billion. UBS expects memory prices and shortages to persist through mid-2028, with Micron, Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and SanDisk seen as the biggest beneficiaries, while Bernstein offered a more cautious view, projecting price gains could slow sometime between late next year and 2028.

Micron raised its planned U.S. investment through 2035 to $250 billion from $200 billion, saying it had begun pouring concrete at its New York semiconductor plant ahead of schedule and would put roughly $500 million toward expanding GlobalWafers' Texas silicon wafer facility.

Applied Materials' chief executive said the chip industry's upcycle should continue for several more years, prompting TD Cowen and Mizuho to raise price targets to $700 and $650, respectively. Rising industry-wide capital spending and steady equipment demand were cited as easing concerns about the sector's outlook.

The IMF raised its 2026 growth forecast for South Korea more than for any other G30 economy, citing strong AI-driven chip demand, lifting its outlook to 2.6% from 1.9% for this year and to 2.5% from 2.1% for next year.

The won held steady around 1,506 per dollar, with a portion of SK Hynix's ADR proceeds expected to be converted for domestic fab investment cited as a supportive factor.

Regulation of leveraged ETFs remained a key source of market-wide uncertainty. Policy Chief Kim Yong-beom said Friday morning that the products would be improved if necessary, with a decision to be made at a market-monitoring meeting involving the finance ministry, financial regulator, central bank, and financial supervisory service (the so-called F4). Analysts noted the market's frustration that similar review-stage statements have repeated without concrete action.

Expectations built that a substantive policy response could emerge at the Financial Services Commission's presidential briefing scheduled for July 15, but concerns grew that market volatility and investor losses could accumulate in the interim. Indeed, some single-stock leveraged products fell even as the underlying SK Hynix shares rose that morning, a distortion attributed to anticipatory positioning around expected regulation.

The Federal Reserve named an outside advisory panel to work on five task forces covering its balance sheet, communications, economic data, AI's effects on productivity and employment, and inflation measurement, though the panel members' policy leanings remain unclear.

The most recent FOMC minutes were seen as broadly hawkish and short-term rates climbed, but financial conditions indexes have actually eased recently, suggesting policy may be less restrictive than markets fear.

Five-year inflation expectations have recently calmed on falling oil prices and hopes for lower consumer prices, with next week's CPI report seen as the key test of how much of the oil decline feeds through.

Weekly jobless claims held in the middle of the expected range, signaling continued labor-market stability.

U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, speaking at a groundbreaking ceremony for a new Micron Technology plant, suggested Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix should also boost U.S. factory investment, a remark that made headlines on Bloomberg's main feed. It was read as a politically charged jab given that roughly $26.5 billion (about 35 trillion won) raised via SK Hynix's ADR is earmarked for domestic investment in Korea.

Hosts noted, however, that both Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix already maintain ongoing U.S. investment, and that SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won is expected to personally ring the Nasdaq opening bell to mark the listing.

An exclusive report indicated Samsung Electronics Chairman Lee Jae-yong is set to meet Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang again later this month, with speculation that additional Nvidia investment tied to Samsung's Gwangju-area semiconductor plans could be discussed, a factor cited behind strength in chip-equipment stocks. Separately, Japan's Kioxia surged 8-11% intraday, tracking the broader global memory and semiconductor rally.

President Trump said the U.S. was ready to de-escalate and that he had been told Iranian officials wanted a deal, prompting markets to turn higher. Brent crude fell roughly 2.5% to 5% to around $71 a barrel, extending a stretch of roughly 10% swings over the past several days.

The Wall Street Journal reported that global oil markets remain unprepared for a possible end to the informal truce with Iran. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve has fallen to its lowest level since 1983, and only about 500,000 of the 40 million barrels the Energy Department recently approved for release have actually been allocated.

Supply strains in diesel and gasoline markets persist as the U.S. exports both fuels near record levels. Gulf Coast gasoline inventories sit roughly 7 million barrels below seasonal norms, with reduced refinery output in China and damage to Russian refining capacity adding to export demand for U.S. fuel.

Key Gulf ports used in Iran's trade routes sustained some damage from recent strikes but are expected to be repaired quickly. Average daily transits through the Strait of Hormuz, normally 30 to 50 vessels, have fallen to about 25, though a normalization is expected as tensions ease.

The overnight U.S. and global market brief above is compiled from 삼프로TV 오전 방송 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C4VUZP2h24Y).

Financial authorities officially denied a leaked Yeouido-sourced leveraged ETF regulation plan (covering higher deposit requirements, mandatory investor education, and daily price-swing caps) as baseless, while reaffirming they would comprehensively analyze the causes of market volatility and seek measures to minimize investor harm.

Policy Chief Kim Yong-beom subsequently said the system would be improved if needed, confirming the issue would be discussed at the F4 meeting (finance ministry, financial regulator, central bank, and financial supervisory service), with the Financial Services Commission's July 15 presidential briefing seen as a likely turning point.

Market participants floated delisting, tighter eligibility limited to professional investors, and higher margin requirements as possible remedies, though concerns persisted that any concrete action would take considerable time to materialize.

Host Lee Kwangsoo opened the show by sharply criticizing the fact that most of the day's top-traded names by volume were single-stock leveraged and inverse ETFs rather than actual stocks. Despite a flood of positive overnight news across the semiconductor and AI ecosystem, the index gave back its intraday gains before barely turning positive, a distortion he attributed to leveraged products effectively wagging the market's tail. He noted that leveraged products had even ranked among foreign investors' top net buys over the past 20 sessions, evidence of mechanical, momentum-driven trading rather than fundamentals-based investing.

He criticized regulators for repeatedly floating options such as raising deposit requirements, restricting access to professional investors, or capping daily price swings, without taking any concrete action. Among the possible remedies, he argued the most direct step, an immediate trading halt, should come first, with debate over permanent fixes to follow. He acknowledged that policy discussion takes time but insisted the market cannot be allowed to deteriorate while regulators deliberate.

He pointed to a specific manipulation risk: an investor could buy a stock while simultaneously buying a 2x inverse product, then sell the underlying shares to profit from the inverse leg, a structural loophole he said was an unintended side effect regulators failed to anticipate when the products were introduced. He warned that a market experiencing 7-8% daily swings, a top-five market in the world by size, effectively resembles a casino rather than a functioning capital market.

He said what troubles him most is the erosion of public trust in domestic equities as repeated losses from this volatility push retail investors back toward stigmatizing Korean stock investment. Even so, he urged investors to retain confidence in market and corporate fundamentals, to avoid over-investing or panic-selling, and instead to set a predetermined, tolerable loss threshold and stick to a stop-loss discipline.