KOSPI Trips Buy-Side Sidecar on Big Tech Earnings Rally, KOSDAQ Attempts to Hold 800

KOSPI rose more than 4% intraday to reach 6,613 points, triggering a buy-side sidecar, while KOSDAQ gained over 2.4% to touch the 800 level intraday, closing near 799. The won held stable near 1,422 per dollar, and foreigners were net buyers of roughly 500 billion won in the KOSPI cash market and another roughly 500 billion won in the futures market. The hosts noted that with Monday's session having been a holiday, it would be unusual — and worth examining — if the domestic market showed weak momentum despite favorable conditions in both U.S. equities and the semiconductor sector.

CEO Park Si-dong raised the possibility that selling by investors holding single-stock leveraged products, triggered by government measures related to such products, produced a tail-wagging-the-dog effect, though he noted the impact would be limited given recently reduced trading volumes in those products. He forecast that this week could be a turning point in determining whether KOSPI resynchronizes with global tailwinds or whether Korea's own idiosyncratic mechanism continues to dominate.

Looking ahead, market watchers noted that SK Hynix's U.S. disclosure quiet period ends around August 4, potentially opening the door to additional positive catalysts such as share buybacks, while Samsung Electronics could also move up the timing of its three-year shareholder return plan announcement. The U.S. July jobs report, due later this week, was flagged as the key variable that will determine the domestic market's direction.

SpaceX posted revenue of $7.8 billion, above expectations, but Starlink subscriber numbers and revenue per subscriber fell short, and combined with concerns over a roughly 900-million-share lockup expiration scheduled for August 6, shares fell about 7% after hours. AMD posted revenue in the $11 billion range with adjusted EPS of $1.66, both above estimates, and data center revenue rose 107% year over year, but next-quarter guidance was seen as not dramatically different from expectations, and shares fell about 9% on the lack of a stronger surprise. The hosts noted that both companies' results themselves were solid, but the market had wanted more dramatic guidance.

Across seven foreign brokerages, price targets for SK Hynix's ADR ranged up to a high of $355, averaging around $260. Rosenblatt, the largest of the brokerages by scale, set a target of $320, which converts to roughly 4.56 million won, or about 3.19 million won even after applying the recent 30% gap between the ADR and the domestic shares. The hosts placed less emphasis on the absolute price target figures and more on the directional shift itself — U.S. brokerages raising their views on SK Hynix in reflection of the memory supply shortage and expectations for shareholder returns.

Samsung Electro-Mechanics and LG Innotek surged about 11% and 14%, respectively, on news that camera modules from both companies will be supplied exclusively for Tesla's driverless robotaxi, compounded by strong earnings from a Japanese parts supplier reported the previous day. The hosts assessed that the two stocks' declines had been excessive relative to Japanese and Taiwanese competitors, leaving room for a rebound, though given the overhang of selling around the 2-million-won level, a sharp rebound like in the past may not come as easily.

Alteogen announced an exclusive licensing export agreement worth up to 520 billion won for its subcutaneous (SC) reformulation technology with a global pharmaceutical company. The hosts emphasized that this deal differs in character from other biotech news, as it does not depend on a future milestone like clinical success or technology development but generates immediate cash inflow from technology that is already complete. Alteogen previously stated that sales of its Keytruda subcutaneous formulation using this platform technology in the U.S. have grown to nearly double the consensus estimate, and that it is negotiating additional multiple export deals.

The relatively muted share price move on the day was attributed to the ex-rights base price adjustment from a 30% bonus share issuance. Alteogen recently decided to remain listed on KOSDAQ despite calls from its largest shareholder to move to a KOSPI listing, and the hosts noted that good news from KOSDAQ's largest-cap stock has a warming effect on the index as a whole.

KOSDAQ extended its winning streak to a fourth consecutive session, with advancing issues vastly outnumbering decliners. On news that the U.S. is pursuing a ban on Chinese optical transceiver imports, domestic optical communication-related stocks including RF Materials surged about 16% on expectations of a benefit. The hosts said volatility appears to be easing following KOSDAQ's historic plunge in July, and expressed hope the warmth would spread across the broader market.

The overcapacity concerns around hyperscaler semiconductor investment that weighed on the market throughout July were effectively put to rest during earnings season. Oracle, seen as a relatively weak performer, jumped more than 9% the previous day, while Meta and Amazon also rose 6% to 9%. The hosts interpreted the strength even in Oracle — considered to have the weakest results — as a signal that the market's last lingering doubts about the AI investment ecosystem have been resolved. Nvidia also gained nearly 3%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose about 6%, with the sector rallying broadly.

Elon Musk, discussing SpaceX's results, said the payback period for AI-related compute infrastructure investment is under a year, and identified memory as the biggest constraint. He explained that while memory production capacity is growing 20% annually, demand is growing 200%, meaning the supply shortage will persist. He noted that when demand grows faster than supply, basic economics dictates prices must rise — remarks the hosts described as a symbolic close to concerns over the semiconductor ecosystem.

SpaceX said it would build all future space- and ground-based data center operations exclusively on Nvidia-based architecture, targeting 2 gigawatts of compute capacity by the end of this year and close to 10 gigawatts by the end of 2027. The hosts interpreted this as a new, well-capitalized source of demand entering the market beyond the hyperscalers, signaling a broadening of the AI infrastructure market.

S&P 500 second-quarter earnings per share growth came in at roughly 45% year over year, far exceeding the 22% growth rate that had been the consensus estimate at the start of the quarter. Even excluding non-operating gains such as the valuation gains on stakes held by Alphabet and Amazon, growth still exceeded 27%. Driven by these strong results, the S&P 500 and Dow both notched fresh all-time highs, decisively breaking above the June peak near 7,620 to reach the 7,700 level.

The June U.S. Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), released the same day, showed job openings of 7.36 million, below the 7.53 million forecast. However, voluntary quits and layoffs held steady from the prior month, suggesting the qualitative health of the labor market remains sound. The hosts explained that the current U.S. labor market is in a phase of neither aggressive hiring nor large-scale layoffs, raising the stakes for this Friday's July jobs report.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said in a CNBC interview that an agreement related to the Strait of Hormuz could be reached as early as Tuesday or Wednesday, with Secretary of State Rubio making similar remarks. Axios also reported that U.S.-Iran negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz were nearing completion, with an announcement possible as early as Wednesday U.S. time.

The hosts noted that Bessent is a highly credible figure within the Trump administration, and that his remarks specifically referenced the Strait of Hormuz rather than Iran as a whole. Following the comments, international oil prices fell to the mid-$74 range, dropping back into the $70s, while the dollar index slid to the 99 level and U.S. Treasury yields also stabilized. The hosts explained that with oil prices, interest rates, and the exchange rate — three macro headwinds — easing simultaneously, risk appetite strengthened.

CEO Park Si-dong explained the flow of the government's newly announced tax code revision (special taxation reform), noting that the tax code revisions the government submits to the National Assembly around September each year are typically processed as a rider bill alongside the year-end budget. He explained that this year's revisions, in addition to real estate tax provisions, include content related to a so-called 'anti-share-price-suppression law' that has drawn attention.

He pointed out that inheritance tax for unlisted companies is assessed based on substantive value such as revenue, net income, and assets, whereas for listed companies it is based on market capitalization — creating an incentive for controlling families facing an inheritance event to leak negative news or otherwise depress the share price to reduce their tax burden. This is cited as one of the core factors behind the 'Korea discount,' which shifts costs onto ordinary investors, and the president has publicly pledged to address it.

However, counterarguments have emerged that the actual content of the disclosed tax code revision falls short of what the market had hoped for. The hosts said that rather than simply pointing out the problem, they would separately analyze what alternatives are needed and present those findings together with developments on Commercial Act revisions in the next broadcast.

Toward the end of the broadcast, the hosts shared a handwritten letter from a listener who tunes in daily. The letter described how, even when war, uncertainty stemming from Trump, sluggish real estate policy, and volatility from leveraged products shook the listener's confidence in the market, listening to the show helped steady their resolve. The letter came with a drawing made by the listener's child, along with a gift the listener personally waited to deliver in front of the broadcaster's building despite the summer heat.

The hosts said the best way to repay such support is simply to keep showing up and delivering the broadcast faithfully, urging viewers to take care of their health in the heat and promising to return again the next day as always.