US-Iran Ceasefire Talks Momentum, Oil Prices Plunge
Reports emerged that Pakistan is acting as a mediator between the United States and Iran. According to the reports, Pakistan's army chief, at President Trump's request, visited Iran to discuss preventing an escalation, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and reaching a swift ceasefire through negotiation. Pakistan's interior minister said the two sides held very constructive talks, and Iran's Tasnim News Agency reported that Iran's position on the Strait of Hormuz had been clearly conveyed to the Pakistani side.
Market attention grew further after Russia's RIA Novosti reported that the United States and Iran had agreed to a ceasefire, which could be announced within a few days. Reports that the CIA director had recently visited Russia also emerged, suggesting behind-the-scenes coordination was under way. However, given past instances of ceasefire-related reports that failed to materialize, market confidence remains limited.
On this news, international oil prices fell a further roughly 2% in Asian trading, with WTI dropping to $80. Having fallen from the $90 range to $80, a further decline could bring it into the $70 range. However, it was pointed out that while the domestic stock market tends to react to such overseas news in real time, it tends to be more hesitant and less confident in digesting good news.