KOSPI Jumps 1.4% After Fed Governor Waller Signals Rate Hold, Episode 100 Special Covers Batteries, Robots, and Wealth Management

The KOSPI rose over 1.4% to pass 6,672 points, while the KOSDAQ climbed over 2.6% to pass 810 points. Foreign investors were net buyers in the cash market from the opening, purchasing roughly 200 billion won on the exchange and about 160 billion won on the KOSDAQ. Most notably, foreign investors showed strong buying in the futures market, net buying about 1.1 trillion won for a second consecutive day.

The won held its recent stabilizing trend, falling about 1.20 won to trade around 1,356 won. The volatility index (VIX-equivalent) extended its decline by 6% from the previous day to the high-39 range, dropping below 40 — a sign that broad market anxiety was easing.

Near the market close, the KOSPI held gains of over 1.5% and the KOSDAQ over 2.7%, with foreign investors continuing to buy. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix each rose more than 2 to 3%, while robotics, refiner, and stablecoin-related stocks broadly showed strong momentum.

Bolstered by rate stability, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix rose over 2% and nearly 3%, respectively, passing the 255,000 won and 1.64 million won levels. With AI-related stocks reliant on debt-financed chip purchases, the logic that lower rates translate directly into strength in large-cap semiconductor names was reaffirmed.

As U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick continued to reference plans to impose semiconductor tariffs, Korea's Minister of Trade, Industry and Energy Kim Jung-kwan said that during last January's tariff negotiations, Korea secured an agreement ensuring its semiconductors would not be treated less favorably than those of competing countries. With the U.S. trade deficit widening again after the earlier tariff relief, and given that actual semiconductor tariffs could hinder hyperscalers' chip purchases, analysts assessed that such remarks are likely to remain largely political rhetoric.

The day's most notable news was that leading U.S. technology firms filed to invest $2 billion in Korea to strengthen the semiconductor and display supply chain. Four U.S. companies — Applied Materials, Axcelis, Corning, and Pacifico Energy — filed foreign direct investments in semiconductor materials and equipment, advanced display materials, and offshore wind power. While the investment size alone is not enough to transform the entire industry, the fact that real capital is being directly deployed was read as a signal that U.S. investors have interest not only in semiconductors but also in Korea's supply chain capabilities in areas like offshore wind. This lifted offshore wind and energy-related stocks such as SK Oceanplant, which rose 2 to 5%.

KOSDAQ-listed robotics stocks surged sharply, with Robotis jumping nearly 19% and Rainbow Robotics and SGP among others posting double-digit gains. However, the assessment was that there was no decisively new news to fully justify the rally, though Nvidia's overnight acquisition of Hugging Face, which holds a robotics platform, was cited as a contributing factor.

Citing IBK Securities research, the robotics industry was broken down into three stages — core components and systems, assembly and production, and downstream applications — with domestically listed names concentrated in the most upstream stage, core components and systems, particularly actuators and sensors.

The substantive backdrop for the rally was cited as a recent recovery in earnings at some component makers, compounded by rising sales in China. Brokerage analysis noted that companies like Robotis are seeing increased parts sales to China, and it was also mentioned that Goldman Sachs' compiled list of key global humanoid robot technology companies includes numerous Chinese firms. The analysis suggested that earnings improvement at some names, combined with China's robot vehicle demand, added momentum to the rally.

Bitcoin held support at $80,000 and briefly climbed to $81,000, staying above the 110 million won level in won terms. Gold futures surpassed $4,500 per ounce, rebounding more than 10% over the past month. Expectations that the pace of rate increases would slow, along with expectations of expanded liquidity from a weaker dollar index, drove the joint strength in crypto and gold.

The actual trigger for this move was the Japanese yen. The Japanese government has maintained a fiscal expansion stance while remaining reluctant to raise rates, leading to continued yen weakness and pressure to intervene in currency markets by selling U.S. Treasuries to defend the yen. However, the U.S. shifted from its previous tacit cooperation and began pressing Japan to raise rates, tilting sentiment within the Bank of Japan toward a hike, with the probability of a rate increase at the September 18 BOJ decision effectively rising to 100%.

A Japanese rate hike would increase the appeal of Japanese government bonds, strengthening the yen, which in relative terms means dollar weakness. Dollar weakness in turn drives demand for alternative stores of value like gold and bitcoin — this chain reaction was presented as the key mechanism explaining the day's joint strength in both assets.

Asked to compare the profitability of automotive batteries and ESS (energy storage systems), the analyst said there is no major difference in principle, but noted that ESS faces less pressure on price cuts. In the United States, EV batteries receive no subsidies, whereas ESS operators do receive subsidy benefits, which creates a relatively more favorable negotiating structure for suppliers.

While it will take more time to return to full boom-cycle margin levels, the outlook presented was that earnings at nearly all battery makers would jump meaningfully starting next year. In particular, since ESS batteries are mostly prismatic and centered on LFP, domestic materials and components makers specializing in LFP and prismatic cells were seen as entering a favorable phase.

On the European market, the assessment was that with Chinese automakers' offensive devastating the European auto industry, Europe would ultimately have no choice but to close its doors. Tariffs are set to be introduced this year even on plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), which are currently tariff-free, and an 'industrial acceleration act' aimed at blocking Chinese firms from setting up shell factories in Europe is under discussion, with agreement targeted by year-end and announcement early next year — a development expected to narrow the gap between Korean battery makers and China.

On the humanoid robot market, per-unit battery capacity is small at around 2 to 4 kWh, so the immediate industry impact is limited, but as production volumes rise going forward, high-density batteries (solid-state and solid-state-adjacent) are expected to be predominantly used, which was framed as an opportunity for Korean makers that are not lagging China. It was also noted that battery applications are expanding into larger mobility segments, with urban air mobility (UAM) and 20-to-30-seat small passenger aircraft successfully completing 30-minute battery-powered flights.

The second segment of the episode 100 special featured critic Yoon Sung-won, an active individual investor, for a conversation on personal wealth management. Asked about good investment strategies for retirement planning given unstable freelance income, Park Se-ik (Sidong) noted that Korea has one of the highest rates of elderly poverty, with income typically declining from one's 50s even as life expectancy continues to rise, underscoring the urgency of retirement preparation.

He advised building the three pillars of the national pension, retirement pension, and personal pension as a foundation, while using current income to build these up in advance through investing. He stressed that irregular income itself should not dictate stock selection, and that reducing spending is actually the solution to the problem of irregular income.

Lee Kwang-soo offered a positive reframing, noting that the uncertainty of not knowing one's time of death actually means one can pursue compounding over a long investment horizon. He said he confidently recommends investing in Korea's KOSPI200 index, suggesting that since dividends at domestic companies have been steadily rising, reinvesting received dividends into the same stocks maximizes the compounding effect. He added that with Korea being one of the most undervalued markets in the world, now is a favorable time for index investing.

When critic Yoon Sung-won shared his concern about a trading pattern in which he holds through gains only to end up cutting losses near the lows, Park Se-ik diagnosed the cause as a 'lack of a plan' and 'repeatedly changing predictions.' He emphasized that predictions should only be made at the point of purchase, and that once a position is held, one should respond according to a plan rather than continuing to predict.

He then explained the true meaning of the saying 'buy at the knee, sell at the shoulder.' During a downturn, since no one can know where the bottom is, buying at a predicted low in advance is not the real 'knee' — rather, the true knee is buying after the bottom has formed and a rebound has been confirmed. Likewise, rather than selling in advance at a predicted top, the true 'shoulder' is selling after the peak (the head) has been confirmed and the price has fallen by a certain percentage. He illustrated the importance of trading timing with the example of Samsung Electronics, which plunged from 100,000 won to 49,000 won before rebounding to 370,000 won.

On stop-losses, he emphasized that they should be viewed not as a fear of locking in losses but as a proactive strategy. If an investor only profits in up markets and holds through down markets without cutting losses, they capture gains for only half of the full cycle. Repeating a cycle of cutting losses and rebuying at lower prices during downturns allows an investor to accumulate more shares of the same stock over time. He redefined the essence of long-term investing not as holding a single stock for a long time, but as surviving in the market long enough to keep investing continuously.

To a listener holding 25,000 shares of Samsung Electronics and 5,000 shares of SK Hynix who asked what to do with dividend income, the advice was not to spend the dividends elsewhere but to reinvest them into the same stocks to maximize compounding. Asked to specifically recommend unfamiliar mineral theme stocks such as tungsten, Lee Kwang-soo stressed the principle of 'if you don't understand it, don't do it,' warning that complex, difficult products are usually designed to be profitable only under very specific conditions. He compared investing to a 'popularity contest,' advising that rather than discovering and holding a stock alone that no one else understands, investors should put money into stocks that many people understand and can rise together on.

On gold investing, he cautioned against the very term 'safe asset.' Park Se-ik emphasized that there is no such thing as a completely safe asset in the world, and that 'safety' is only a relative concept. He said gold is not a preferred investment target for him, since it neither generates returns on its own nor pays dividends. Lee Kwang-soo explained that gold prices have recently grown as volatile as a financial product driven by supply-and-demand factors such as expanded central bank purchases, and introduced alternative approaches such as gold-related products with lower tax burdens or gold mining stocks, rather than buying physical gold directly.

The broadcast closed with the three hosts and the guest sharing their reflections on reaching episode 100. Park Se-ik spoke of the hard work behind preparing the broadcast and some regret over having no days off, while Lee Kwang-soo expressed the fulfillment of connecting with listeners and conveyed his hope that listeners would build an investing culture of pursuing steady, long-term compounding, bringing the special public broadcast to a close.

The broadcast marked episode 100 and the first public live broadcast, opening with host Lee Kwang-soo's signature greeting, 'This is your lunch companion, Lee Kwang-soo, meeting you at noon.' Reflecting on reaching episode 100, he noted that he had originally planned to end the show as quickly as possible, but instead of stopping once stock prices kept rising as intended, he ended up continuing the show as prices fell.

Lee Kwang-soo said he always thinks about the ending when he starts something, citing the paradox that those who talk about quitting tend to last the longest. Rather than forcing a vow to continue forever, he stated his broadcasting philosophy of working hard each day while humbly picturing an eventual end.

He also shared his thoughts on what he had gained and lost from hosting the show. While he had left his company to find a freer life, he noted with some regret that broadcasting at a fixed time every day again felt like corporate life. Still, he said that communicating directly with listeners and building 'our side' together was his greatest source of fulfillment.

The main driver of the day's rally was remarks from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller. He said that, barring an unexpectedly hawkish inflation print in upcoming data, he is leaning toward supporting a rate hold at the September FOMC meeting, adding that a 25bp hike is not a decisive variable in bringing inflation back to 2%. This contrasted with Governor Kevin Warsh's hawkish tone last week, when he suggested the Fed would 'do what it needs to do' if inflation looked troubling.

Governor Waller, appointed during Trump's first term and until recently a leading contender for Fed chair, has been classified by markets as a hawk. His explicit support for a rate hold was thus taken by the market as counter-evidence that the Fed is not uniformly leaning toward hikes, and betting odds on a rate hike fell from about 70% before the remarks to 50%.

A particularly notable point was that Waller flipped on its head the 'strike zone must be clear' metaphor that Chair Warsh has favored. His argument was that the strike zone cannot be perfect, and what matters instead is predictability — that the criteria for judgment should not shift dramatically each time. This was interpreted as a strong signal of a divide within the Fed. Analysts also noted this may have been Waller's last opportunity to comment before the FOMC enters its blackout period ahead of next week's U.S. CPI and PPI releases.

Lee Kwang-soo noted that such informal remarks from Fed governors can sometimes be deliberate communication intended to signal the market. When the market becomes overheated or overly contracted, governors will sometimes calibrate sentiment through hawkish or dovish comments in interviews or public appearances. He assessed that Waller's remarks, whether driven by a connection with the administration or simply an older style of market communication, should ultimately be understood as a phenomenon that influences rates.