Iran-U.S. Tanker Clashes Intensify, Oil Prices Volatile Again
In the Middle East, attacks targeting tankers between Iran and the U.S. have continued, with oil prices reportedly climbing above the recent high of $92 per barrel. The U.S. struck three Iranian vessels, which U.S. officials characterized as illicit crude exports via a 'shadow fleet,' while Iran had previously struck Saudi Aramco refining facilities, with both sides escalating mutual attacks on oil infrastructure and transport vessels.
According to a New York Times report, U.S. intelligence believes Iranian hardliners have actually consolidated internal cohesion through the war, and hold the view that they only need to control the Strait of Hormuz until November, raising the possibility that the conflict could be prolonged.
Goldman Sachs analyzed that if maritime shipping disruptions deepen, international oil prices could rebound to as high as $120 per barrel, and even if Middle East crude exports normalize, it expects the floor for oil prices to settle around $80, higher than the pre-war range of $60–65. It was also noted that the seasonal timing — the Northern Hemisphere entering its autumn and winter heating demand season — adds further upward pressure on oil prices.
Panelists noted that oil prices and the war are matters of response rather than prediction, cautioning against both excessive optimism and excessive concern, while stating that from a long-term perspective — assuming the war eventually ends — there is no need for excessive contraction.