US Chip Rally Lifts KOSPI Above 2%…BOJ Raises Rate to 31-Year High as HBM Prices Keep Climbing

HBM Prices Set for Gradual Rise Amid Long-Term Contracts with Hyperscalers Asked why further price increases keep materializing despite recurring calls of a peak whenever semiconductor prices rise, an industry official responded that, given relationships with hyperscalers, gradual increases through long-term contracts are preferable to sharp price hikes. Contracts are being structured so that securing large volumes comes first, with prices rising modestly on top of that. Analysis also suggested that HBM4 destined for Nvidia will inevitably cost at least 30% more than the previous generation, HBM3E, as the increase in pin count and input terminals has raised the underlying cost itself. Samsung Electronics has already begun HBM supply to AMD and is also in the process of supplying Nvidia, while SK Hynix is expected to supply volumes mainly centered on Nvidia. It was also noted that shipments of Google's in-house AI chip, the TPU, are expected to reach about half of Nvidia's shipment volume this year. Google is targeting sales of 4.5 million TPUs by 2028, at which point it is expected to place orders with TSMC for more than roughly 8 million units. Nvidia's shipments during the same period are projected at around 12 million units, meaning TPU volume could approach roughly two-thirds of Nvidia's level. There was also a forecast that Google could become the world's first to adopt HBM4E as early as next year, suggesting that the price increases and mix improvement effects from HBM4 will begin to materialize in earnest from this quarter. While concerns about won strength have recently been raised, considering the price increases in general-purpose products and the expanding HBM4 mix, revenue could exceed market consensus, and operating profit could also come in above the average rather than near the low end of consensus. Asked whether Samsung Electronics' expanding HBM share poses a threat to SK Hynix, the response was that while SK Hynix's share is expected to decline from about 59% this year to around 52%, with Samsung Electronics absorbing the difference, SK Hynix's HBM revenue is nonetheless expected to grow significantly as the overall HBM market pie expands. HBM demand, which was somewhat sluggish in the first half, is expected to show meaningful year-over-year growth from the second half onward. Citing TrendForce data, the HBM market size was estimated at about $60 billion this year, doubling to roughly $120 billion next year, and reaching approximately $560 billion by 2030. Asked whether these figures were overly optimistic, TrendForce reportedly responded that the estimates were scientifically calculated based on the scale of TSMC's capacity expansion and the actual demand from Google, Amazon, Nvidia, and AMD. However, it was also pointed out that, given the meaningful ramp-up of new supply capacity expected around 2029-2030, there is a timing discrepancy with the Intel CEO's claim of a 5-7x increase in demand. TPU vs Nvidia Semiconductor Shipment Outlook for 2028 — This compares projected 2028 order volume for Google's TPU chips with Nvidia's projected shipment volume, with Nvidia expected to post a larger volume than TPU. KOSPI Rallies Over 2% on Wall Street Tailwind, Foreign Net Buying The KOSPI traded up more than 2.1% at around 6,856 points, while the KOSDAQ rose 0.66% to 827 points. Foreigners posted net buying of about 170 billion won in KOSPI cash, about 17 billion won in KOSDAQ cash, and nearly 800 billion won in the futures market. The exchange rate traded around 1,384 won, extending its gain after the Bank of Japan's rate decision. Overnight, Wall Street rallied broadly, with the three major indices, the Russell 2000, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (up more than 3%) all advancing. Two factors were cited. One was oil price stabilization: a Reuters report that China had urged the Houthi rebels toward restraint via Iran, along with news that a Saudi oil pipeline could resume roughly half of its operations within days, sent WTI down to around $101. The other was stability in Treasury yields, as the market interpreted the FOMC outcome as resolving uncertainty, and the Bank of England's decision the previous day to hold rates while announcing a halt to gilt sales (quantitative tightening) pushed UK gilt yields lower, which in turn stabilized European and US Treasury yields. The program's host noted that while yesterday's US rate hike is typically negative for equities, not raising rates could have heightened bond market instability and reignited inflation concerns, so the market had actually expected the hike to happen now. As the market digested this as a resolution of uncertainty rather than a short-term negative, US stocks rose, and one interest-rate issue that had been weighing on the domestic market was said to have been resolved. A US-China summit is scheduled for September 24 next week. On the US side, OpenAI's Sam Altman and Nvidia's Jensen Huang, and on the Chinese side, the CEOs of BYD, Xiaomi, and optical communications firm Innolight, are being mentioned as possible attendees, making progress in negotiations around the summit a point of interest. Regarding investment strategy ahead of the Chuseok holiday, a report by Daishin Securities analyst Lee Kyung-min was introduced. It noted that while short-term volatility could increase from cautious selling ahead of the holiday amid a hawkish FOMC, the market typically tends to rebound after the holiday as pent-up demand flows in, suggesting this could be viewed as an opportunity to increase positions. However, since settlement of stock sales into cash takes T+2, it was also noted that, practically speaking, those wishing to withdraw funds before the holiday need to complete their trades by Monday. KOSPI vs KOSDAQ Change Rate — This compares the day's change rates of the KOSPI and KOSDAQ indices, with the KOSPI posting a larger gain than the KOSDAQ. BOJ Raises Rate to 31-Year High of 1.25%, Bank of England Halts Quantitative Tightening The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate from 1% to 1.25%, a 25bp hike, today. The vote passed 7-2, with members Asada and Sato dissenting. The BOJ stated it would continue raising rates further if the economy, prices, and financial conditions evolve as projected, while adding that the timing and pace would be decided while monitoring risks. Japan's core CPI released today came in at about 1.9% year-on-year, with the need to keep underlying inflation from exceeding 2% cited as the background for the hike. Analysis suggested that the fundamental reason behind Japan's rate hike is to defend against yen weakness. Because of the large interest rate gap between Japan and the US, funds have continued flowing from low-rate Japan into high-rate US assets, deepening yen weakness. However, since the US also raised rates just before Japan's decision, the rate gap either stayed the same or the dollar strengthened further, leading to an assessment that this BOJ hike alone will have limited effect in curbing yen weakness. It was noted that the BOJ's pace of rate decisions is typically slow, roughly once every six months, making this hike, which came just three months after the last one, an unusually rapid adjustment. The market reportedly views this pace as still insufficient and believes consecutive further hikes are needed, with attention on whether Governor Ueda's press conference at 3:30 PM will send a clear signal on the pace of future hikes. Concerns were also raised that if no such signal emerges, yen weakness will not be curbed, but if it does emerge, it could reignite the issue of unwinding yen carry trades, as funds that had flowed out of Japan into the US and elsewhere reverse course. Immediately following the decision, the dollar-yen rate quickly settled around 156 yen, having briefly dropped to 154-155 yen (yen strength) intraday before reversing higher again. It was noted that, given the yen's large weight in the dollar index, this could affect future trends, and remarks expected from Prime Minister Takaichi's 6:30 PM press conference regarding expansionary fiscal policy were also cited as a variable for weekend bond market moves. The Bank of England held its policy rate hawkishly the previous day while also announcing a halt to gilt sales (quantitative tightening). This signals an end to the policy of absorbing liquidity by selling gilts into the market, which is seen as maintaining market liquidity and easing the burden of gilt supply, resulting in lower UK gilt yields. It was assessed that the UK, whose fiscal position is relatively unstable, aligning with efforts to stabilize its gilt market also contributed to broader stability in European and US Treasury yields. Treasury Yield Stability, National Debt Burdens, and Korea's Relative Room to Maneuver According to UBS analysis, this FOMC was interpreted as a 'regime change' in the Fed's policy reaction function, seen as a firmer-than-expected commitment to taming inflation, which drove US 10-year Treasury yields lower (to around 4.929%). The program offered a diagnosis of why markets react so sensitively even to small rate increases across countries: excessive debt levels worldwide. In Japan's case, prolonged delays in structural reform following the bubble collapse in the 1990s have pushed the government debt ratio to 300-350%, making the country especially vulnerable to rate changes. By comparison, Korea's government debt ratio stands at only 50-60%, giving it relatively greater policy room. However, a comparison was also drawn noting that unlike Korea, which is enjoying record export strength, Japan has limited channels for dollar inflows, making it inherently more sensitive to exchange rate movements. Two points of interest going forward were identified: the exchange rate and corporate earnings, once the interest rate issue has settled. A further rise in the exchange rate could act as selling pressure on equities, while stabilization could present a buying opportunity; the commentary also emphasized paying attention to companies capable of overcoming rate increases through earnings. Middle East Developments Behind Oil Price Stabilization Oil price stabilization was cited as one factor behind last night's rally on Wall Street. A Reuters report that China had urged the Houthi rebels toward restraint via Iran, along with news that a Saudi Arabian oil pipeline that had been offline could resume about half of its operations within days, sent WTI prices lower, trading around $101. Although the decline was not large, it was assessed as providing relief to oil prices that had been weighed down by geopolitical risk. Doosan Group Expands AI Data Center CCL Capacity, Power Shortage Eases, Citadel's October AI Outlook Doosan-related stocks extended their rally for a fourth consecutive session through today, gaining an additional 3%. Yesterday, Doosan decided to retire more than 100 billion won worth of treasury shares and subsequently announced an investment of about 960 billion won to expand capacity for AI data center CCL (copper clad laminate). DS Investment & Securities analyst Lee Su-rim offered a positive assessment that this CCL expansion could generate more than 4 trillion won in additional annual revenue. However, it was noted that since the Doosan Group has faced funding-related controversy each time it pursued new business investments in the past, a concrete capital-raising plan needs to be presented alongside efforts such as the pursuit of the SK Siltron acquisition in order to gain investor confidence. Citadel Securities forecast that the worst is over for the US stock market and that the AI sector will lead an October rally. It cited statistics showing that the average S&P 500 gain from late September through year-end in midterm election years exceeds 5%, but also noted the caveat that further downside remains possible over the remaining two weeks of September. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang stated that Nvidia's chip sales could double next year, providing a positive boost across AI hardware-related stocks. In addition, Amazon signed a long-term supply agreement with Generac to stabilize data center power, and Nvidia is reportedly also reviewing its own data center power regulation measures, indicating that concerns over power shortages, which had constrained AI hardware installations, are easing. Reports that GPU rental rates had risen by an average of about 20% further reinforced an optimistic assessment of the AI industry outlook. [Kwangsoo's Take] With the Overhang Resolved, Investing Means Looking at the Future Today's host, Lee Kwang-soo, emphasized that with the rate-hike issue now behind us, attention should shift to upcoming variables such as earnings announcements, oil prices, and the US election. With the interest-rate uncertainty that had been the biggest overhang on the market now resolved, he assessed that one factor that had been pressing down on the market has disappeared. He noted that since investing targets the future rather than the past or present, one should look for signs of change from the perspective of 'could things really get worse than this,' no matter how bad indicators or news may appear. Many investors express frustration that stock prices rise even amid news of rising rates and oil prices hovering above $100, but he explained this is because the market prices in the future in advance. Regarding how to respond ahead of the Chuseok holiday, he noted that the psychological damage to investors is far greater when they sell before the holiday only to see the market rise during it, compared to holding without selling and seeing the market fall, suggesting it is better not to overreact with short-term trading. [Noon Salon] 2030 Town Hall — Barriers to Asset Formation for Young People, Housing Insecurity, and Powerlessness Today's Noon Salon segment featured Chairman Han Ga-seop and Editor-in-Chief Kim Seung-hyun in a conversation on asset formation and political participation among people in their 20s and 30s. Chairman Han identified 'powerlessness' as the biggest problem felt by young people, pointing out that even before homeownership, the stress of repeated jeonse/wolse lease renewals and moves every two years makes it difficult to secure a stable living environment. He also noted that, unlike older generations, today's youth face large disparities from birth and are more prone to feelings of relative deprivation due to social media. Against this backdrop, it was noted that a desire for 'one-shot windfalls' has emerged among young people, and with real estate purchases effectively out of reach, many turn to stock investment as their only perceived escape route. It was mentioned that cases of people taking out loans to invest excessively, only to get stuck and struggle even with living expenses, are not uncommon. Editor-in-Chief Kim pointed to a more fundamental problem — that young people have 'never been taught how to invest' — criticizing the near-total absence of practical economic education on asset formation and financial life within public education. The host introduced a policy concept similar to a 'social inheritance system,' under which the government would help close the gap between young people who can inherit assets from their parents and those who cannot, using part of inheritance tax revenue to provide a social starting fund to young people with no assets to inherit — a more fundamental approach than the current fragmented, employment-subsidy-style youth policies. Editor-in-Chief Kim provided specifics, noting that the Ministry of Health and Welfare's Dream Start Savings Account (a child development support account) program, introduced in 2006-2007, remains in operation today, with about 225,000 enrollees as of December 2025, and that a dedicated asset-formation management team was newly established this year under the Lee Jae-myung administration. The two also noted that youth politics and youth policy are often conflated, preventing the effectiveness of policies from being properly publicized or felt, and that those in their 40s and 50s, burdened by dual support obligations, can easily feel resentment toward youth discourse. Chairman Han offered concrete examples of policy design disconnected from reality, such as youth housing applications only accounting for single-person households and thus excluding shared living with roommates, emphasizing that the detailed design of housing policy matters just as much as investment in shaping how young people actually experience these programs.