US Chip Rally Lifts KOSPI Above 2%…BOJ Raises Rate to 31-Year High as HBM Prices Keep Climbing

Asked why further price increases keep materializing despite recurring calls of a peak whenever semiconductor prices rise, an industry official responded that, given relationships with hyperscalers, gradual increases through long-term contracts are preferable to sharp price hikes. Contracts are being structured so that securing large volumes comes first, with prices rising modestly on top of that.

Analysis also suggested that HBM4 destined for Nvidia will inevitably cost at least 30% more than the previous generation, HBM3E, as the increase in pin count and input terminals has raised the underlying cost itself. Samsung Electronics has already begun HBM supply to AMD and is also in the process of supplying Nvidia, while SK Hynix is expected to supply volumes mainly centered on Nvidia.

It was also noted that shipments of Google's in-house AI chip, the TPU, are expected to reach about half of Nvidia's shipment volume this year. Google is targeting sales of 4.5 million TPUs by 2028, at which point it is expected to place orders with TSMC for more than roughly 8 million units. Nvidia's shipments during the same period are projected at around 12 million units, meaning TPU volume could approach roughly two-thirds of Nvidia's level.

There was also a forecast that Google could become the world's first to adopt HBM4E as early as next year, suggesting that the price increases and mix improvement effects from HBM4 will begin to materialize in earnest from this quarter. While concerns about won strength have recently been raised, considering the price increases in general-purpose products and the expanding HBM4 mix, revenue could exceed market consensus, and operating profit could also come in above the average rather than near the low end of consensus.

Asked whether Samsung Electronics' expanding HBM share poses a threat to SK Hynix, the response was that while SK Hynix's share is expected to decline from about 59% this year to around 52%, with Samsung Electronics absorbing the difference, SK Hynix's HBM revenue is nonetheless expected to grow significantly as the overall HBM market pie expands. HBM demand, which was somewhat sluggish in the first half, is expected to show meaningful year-over-year growth from the second half onward.

Citing TrendForce data, the HBM market size was estimated at about $60 billion this year, doubling to roughly $120 billion next year, and reaching approximately $560 billion by 2030. Asked whether these figures were overly optimistic, TrendForce reportedly responded that the estimates were scientifically calculated based on the scale of TSMC's capacity expansion and the actual demand from Google, Amazon, Nvidia, and AMD. However, it was also pointed out that, given the meaningful ramp-up of new supply capacity expected around 2029-2030, there is a timing discrepancy with the Intel CEO's claim of a 5-7x increase in demand.

Doosan-related stocks extended their rally for a fourth consecutive session through today, gaining an additional 3%. Yesterday, Doosan decided to retire more than 100 billion won worth of treasury shares and subsequently announced an investment of about 960 billion won to expand capacity for AI data center CCL (copper clad laminate). DS Investment & Securities analyst Lee Su-rim offered a positive assessment that this CCL expansion could generate more than 4 trillion won in additional annual revenue. However, it was noted that since the Doosan Group has faced funding-related controversy each time it pursued new business investments in the past, a concrete capital-raising plan needs to be presented alongside efforts such as the pursuit of the SK Siltron acquisition in order to gain investor confidence.

Citadel Securities forecast that the worst is over for the US stock market and that the AI sector will lead an October rally. It cited statistics showing that the average S&P 500 gain from late September through year-end in midterm election years exceeds 5%, but also noted the caveat that further downside remains possible over the remaining two weeks of September.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang stated that Nvidia's chip sales could double next year, providing a positive boost across AI hardware-related stocks. In addition, Amazon signed a long-term supply agreement with Generac to stabilize data center power, and Nvidia is reportedly also reviewing its own data center power regulation measures, indicating that concerns over power shortages, which had constrained AI hardware installations, are easing. Reports that GPU rental rates had risen by an average of about 20% further reinforced an optimistic assessment of the AI industry outlook.