Micron Results Highlight Memory Boom…Record Exports and KOSDAQ Strength

The KOSPI rose around 0.7% intraday to the 6,887 level, while the KOSDAQ gained 2.79% to around 879. Foreign investors continued to sell KOSPI shares, but the scale of their selling declined. On the KOSDAQ, foreign investors returned to buying, recording net purchases in the KRW 150 billion range. Foreign investors were net sellers of around KRW 120 billion in the futures market, but quickly reduced their selling during the session.

Late in the session, the KOSPI’s gain widened to 1%, and institutional investors also turned net buyers. Large-cap stocks led the advance, with Samsung Electronics and SK hynix rising more than 2%. On the KOSDAQ, biotech, secondary-battery, and semiconductor materials, parts, and equipment stocks drove gains. The won–U.S. dollar exchange rate was cited in the KRW 1,360 range.

Among Asian markets, Japan’s Nikkei rose about 2.7%, outperforming its regional peers. The composition of the Japanese market, which has a large weighting in semiconductor materials, parts, and equipment companies, was cited as one factor behind the advance. U.S. stocks ended lower late in the session on the final trading day of the third quarter, as Treasury yields rose after the release of inflation data.

Micron Technology reported fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $54.2 billion, exceeding the market consensus of $51.0 billion. Revenue increased 379% year over year and 31% from the previous quarter. Adjusted earnings per share topped $33, above expectations of around $31, while gross margin came in at 87%, higher than the market forecast of 86.1%.

DRAM revenue was $39.8 billion, accounting for about 73% of total revenue and rising 27% from the previous quarter. The midpoint of the company’s revenue guidance for the next quarter was $61.5 billion, and its adjusted earnings-per-share forecast was around $38; both exceeded market expectations. The company’s gross-margin forecast of 86.25% for the next quarter was slightly below the market estimate of 86.4%.

Concerns that profitability had peaked were cited as a reason for the share price’s weakness after the earnings release. The company said, however, that margins could bottom in the first quarter of the next fiscal year, largely because expenses such as incentive compensation are concentrated in that quarter. It said this did not signal a margin decline caused by a weakening industry cycle.

In July 2025, Goldman Sachs forecast that HBM prices could fall by double digits in 2026, citing intensifying competition and greater pricing power among customers. The analysis assumed that supply would rise alongside increased HBM production. Critics argued, however, that it did not sufficiently account for the interaction whereby the large volume of DRAM required to produce HBM could reduce conventional DRAM output, and rising DRAM prices could in turn push HBM prices higher.

The key question for the memory market is shifting from whether companies are profitable to how long they can sustain high profitability. If investment in AI and operating cash flow at big tech companies improve, demand may remain strong enough to absorb higher memory prices. In contrast to cycles once expected to turn down after one or two years—or even six months—some industry remarks pointed to supply shortages continuing beyond 2028 and even through 2031.

Micron said HBM revenue growth outpaced the company’s overall revenue growth, and that both its customer base and shipment volumes had increased. It has contracted with customers for most of next year’s supply and is also expanding HBM4 production. The number of long-term agreements has increased from 16 to 26, and the company said it had secured smaller computer makers as long-term customers in addition to large big tech companies.

The company said it would direct investment toward building clean rooms to prepare for supply needs beyond 2028, rather than immediately bringing in equipment to sharply increase output. It said equipment installations would be adjusted flexibly to meet demand. The company disclosed that price floors and ceilings apply to 75% of its contracts, and said Chinese companies are two to three generations behind technologically.

Biotech stocks strengthened amid expectations that clinical results, regulatory approvals, and licensing deals would come into view in the second half of the year. One view was that small- and mid-cap biotech stocks, which had already priced in substantial bad news and corrections, could respond strongly even to modest positive developments. It was also suggested that biotech stocks may have benefited from foreign buying in large-cap KOSDAQ stocks, which helped lift the index.

The biotech industry was reported to have completed licensing deals worth around KRW 20 trillion to KRW 21 trillion during the year, with forecasts suggesting that additional agreements worth around KRW 10 trillion could be reached before year-end. Expectations focused on companies approaching clinical results, regulatory decisions, or licensing milestones, though it was also emphasized that success was not guaranteed for every company mentioned.

Semiconductor materials, parts, and equipment stocks also gained prominence on the KOSDAQ. Jusung Engineering rose to third place by KOSDAQ market capitalization, moving ahead of EcoPro BM, while six of the 12 largest companies by market capitalization were semiconductor materials, parts, and equipment firms. Expectations of increased investment by semiconductor companies and capital shifting from the KOSPI to the KOSDAQ were cited as factors drawing interest to these stocks.

The U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index for August came in below market expectations, but Treasury yields did not fall. During the annual benchmark revision, the methods used to calculate prices for some items changed, including portfolio management, investment advice, legal services, computer accessories, and software. Some interpreted the changes to mean that the new methodology could make inflation appear 0.1–0.2 percentage points lower than under the previous method, making it difficult to take the reported slowdown in inflation at face value.

The PCE index covers a broader range of personal consumption expenditures than the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and is an important inflation measure for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions. U.S. GDP and the ADP private-sector employment indicator also came in stronger than expected, weakening the market’s expectations of an economic slowdown and interest-rate cuts. U.S. Treasury yields cited on the broadcast were around 5.6% for the 30-year bond and 5.29% for the 10-year bond.

The prospect that high interest rates could become a new normal rather than a temporary condition also weighed on investor sentiment. The argument is that when long-term Treasury yields reach 5–6%, the gap between expected returns on stocks and bond yields narrows, potentially reducing the appeal of equities. Paramount’s bond issuance related to its acquisition of Warner Bros. also absorbed demand that might otherwise have flowed into Treasuries, adding to upward pressure on yields.

There was also a counterargument that it was difficult to conclude that all funds would move into bonds if high rates persisted. Restrictions on transfers between equity and bond funds arise from their different investment objectives and management rules, while capital seeking higher growth and returns could flow into emerging markets or alternative assets. This perspective calls for monitoring interest rates and capital flows together.

South Korea’s September exports totaled $120.9 billion, up 83.5% from a year earlier and exceeding $120 billion for the first time on a monthly basis. Semiconductor exports reached $60.3 billion, surpassing $60 billion for the first time for a single product category. Memory exports topped $37.5 billion, and exports of displays, computers, and semiconductor equipment also increased alongside semiconductors.

DRAM, NAND, SSDs, HBM, semiconductor equipment, MLCCs, gasoline and diesel, and cosmetics were also cited among the products that recorded all-time-high export figures. Exports by small and medium-sized enterprises increased as well, indicating that the export boom was not confined to semiconductors. Annual exports had already exceeded $800 billion, and forecasts suggested that the $1 trillion mark could be reached for the year.

Third-quarter semiconductor exports were estimated at around $148 billion. Based on this export trend, estimates were also presented placing Samsung Electronics’ and SK hynix’s profits at around KRW 118 trillion and KRW 76 trillion, respectively; these were estimates derived from export data, not confirmed earnings. Samsung Electronics is scheduled to release preliminary results on October 8.

President Trump referred to a Texas power plant, eight nuclear reactors, and the Alaska LNG project in connection with South Korea’s U.S. investment plan. However, the fact sheet jointly prepared by the South Korean and U.S. authorities stipulated that the Alaska LNG project must meet commercial viability requirements and comply with domestic law. The $50 billion in South Korean investment cited by President Trump was not specified in the fact sheet.

A plan to invest around $22.3 billion in the Texas power plant was mentioned. It was said that operating the plant for around 20 years could generate a return of principal and interest amounting to roughly twice the investment, with an expected annual return of 7–8%. However, no party has yet signed a power purchase agreement (PPA) to buy the electricity over the long term. Expectations that data-center power demand could provide buyers were weighed against the risk of building a power plant before securing purchase agreements.

One proposal discussed placing U.S.-design reactors in units 1 and 2 and Korean-designed reactors in units 3 and 4 among the eight nuclear reactors. The prospect of Korean-designed reactors entering the U.S. market could become more concrete, but market restrictions under the existing agreement with Westinghouse, as well as issues concerning ownership stakes and voting rights, remain unresolved. Details of the U.S. investment projects are expected to be released from October through December, and a preliminary draft of the 12th Basic Plan for Electricity Supply and Demand is also expected to be developed into a final plan during that period.

Advance applications for the program supporting young people’s first National Pension contributions opened on October 1. The program aims to encourage young people to enroll earlier, including those whose enrollment has been delayed by education or military service, thereby extending their contribution period and increasing their future pension benefits. People born in 2009 or later can apply, either themselves or through a parent, using the National Pension mobile app “Nae Gyeote Gungminyeongeum,” the website, or by phone.

Financial authorities were reported to be pursuing measures requiring large securities firms to produce research reports on small- and mid-cap stocks and introducing a minimum share of small-cap research. The proposals also include allowing analysts to choose whether to disclose their names when issuing sell recommendations, easing the burden of attaching their identities to such calls. The measures are intended to expand analytical coverage of small- and mid-cap listed companies and improve investors’ access to information.

Lee Kwang-soo noted that if young people have to apply to receive support for their pension contributions, those who are unaware of the program could miss out. Since the government can identify eligible ages and qualifications, he argued that automatic support would be preferable wherever possible. He emphasized that the program should lower barriers so that people who are busy at work or unfamiliar with online applications can also receive support.

Lee Kwang-soo said expanding research is an important way for securities firms to return profits to investors and the market. In particular, he argued that sufficient analytical reports should be provided on KOSDAQ and small- and mid-cap stocks, in which individual investors are heavily involved. He also said that measures to reduce the burden on analysts when issuing sell recommendations could help improve both research independence and the information available to investors.

Lee Kwang-soo argued that South Korean companies’ participation in the U.S. power plant project could be an opportunity, but that investment in Alaska LNG should not be rushed. He said there had been cases in which South Korean workers and engineers spent long periods working on power plants and construction projects abroad without receiving adequate compensation, and emphasized that companies and workers should earn tangible returns from this U.S. investment.

Lee Kwang-soo said investors should regularly review export data and industry trends rather than paying attention only when share prices rise. When assessing semiconductor materials, parts, and equipment stocks, he suggested checking the holdings of major semiconductor ETFs and tracking changes in the holdings and weightings of constituents other than Samsung Electronics and SK hynix. He said that an increase in a major ETF’s weighting in a particular stock can offer one way to gauge market interest and inflows of capital.