Oil Prices Fall on Hopes for U.S.-Iran Talks
News that negotiations between the United States and Iran had resumed was cited as a backdrop to the market rebound. President Donald Trump said on social media that he had spoken with Qatar’s prime minister, that progress had been made on several issues, and that an agreement had been reached on the nuclear issue. He added that the United States remained ready to respond immediately, while the likelihood of an actual clash was low.
According to Al Arabiya, discussions included a proposal allowing Iran to retain uranium enriched to 3.67% domestically, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the lifting of the naval blockade. A proposal to release $6 billion–$9 billion in frozen Iranian assets was also raised. Iran said the restrictions put on the negotiating table were reasonable among the options presented, and reports also emerged of a visit by International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors.
As hopes for progress in the talks grew, WTI crude fell to around $86 a barrel and later declined to the $85 range intraday. The host said Trump’s recent remarks used more restrained language than in the past and could be read as a conciliatory signal. However, whether agreement can be reached on nuclear inspections, the Strait of Hormuz and frozen assets remains unresolved, and it is necessary to see whether the talks lead to an actual end to the conflict.
Reports said Vice President JD Vance had recently been involved in the negotiations, and the political interests of Vance, who is mentioned as a potential future Republican presidential candidate, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio were also discussed. One view is that the United States could focus on the issue of highly enriched uranium related to nuclear weapons and secure results, while Iran could gain sanctions relief and the reopening of the strait as part of a compromise. Given the situation in Israel and developments in U.S. negotiations, the market is hoping for a de-escalation of the crisis.