KOSPI Slides on Hormuz Threat — Lee Kwang-soo and Park Si-dong: "Stick to the Plan Through Chips and a 10,000 KOSPI"

As of 11:30 a.m. that day, the KOSPI was trading around 5,492. Foreign and institutional investors together net-sold more than 2.3 trillion won, driving the decline, while retail investors net-bought nearly 4 trillion won and cushioned the fall. Large-cap stocks weakened broadly — Samsung Electronics fell 5.6% to around 188,000 won and SK hynix dropped 6% to around 940,000 won. The KOSDAQ also slid to around 1,116.

The won-dollar exchange rate topped 1,509 won intraday, its highest in 17 years. The hosts attributed the sharp selloff to a rapid escalation in Middle East tensions over the weekend.

Amid the volatility, the hosts advised a simple rule: do nothing today. While no plan is needed when prices rise, a response plan is essential when they fall. They suggested investors identify the loss level they cannot tolerate on their holdings or ETFs and convert part of their position to cash if that threshold is breached. The day's one-line takeaway: "Wait, and make a plan."

Asked about today's portfolio allocation, the hosts suggested roughly 40-50% in semiconductor and related supply-chain stocks, 25-40% in index ETFs, and around 20% in cash — emphasizing that cash isn't wasted capital but ammunition for seizing opportunities in volatile markets.

On whether to invest in Korea or the U.S., they cited data showing Korean equities were the world's top performer last year and through this February (up 48-70%), while U.S. equities were down 2% over the same period, reaffirming their view that "there's no such thing as long-term forecasting, only short-term response."

To concerns that stocks would fall if the ruling party lost power, they replied: "You can sell after you actually lose the election — don't worry prematurely, invest now."

For a stock already down 50%, they asked which is faster: that stock doubling or tripling to break even, or a currently leading stock rising — advising investors to cut losses and rotate into market leaders instead.

Asked if it's not too late to buy now, they said yes, but recommended dollar-cost averaging in and always keeping a cash buffer, noting that the war is a temporary variable that will eventually resolve.

Lee Kwang-soo framed the AI era as a phase of capitalist innovation driven by cost reduction. Citing how prices of refrigerators, phones, and cars have actually fallen over the past century, he argued capitalism has been sustained not by inflation but by technology-driven price cuts — and AI represents an industrial-revolution-scale innovation that lowers computing and production costs.

He argued that as AI model parameter growth outpaces hardware performance gains, a widening 'memory wall' gap emerges — one that memory chips are uniquely positioned to fill. He noted Samsung Electronics, SK hynix, and Micron control roughly 92% of the memory market, with Chinese entrants effectively blocked by U.S. policy restrictions.

Historically, memory supply consistently outpaced demand, pushing prices down and earning chips a reputation as a cyclical sector. But with demand now on a structural uptrend and supply concentrated among just three players, he argued chips could be re-rated as structural growth stocks, similar to Nvidia.

Brokerage earnings estimates have been revised sharply upward each year. Samsung Electronics' operating profit forecast has risen from 266 trillion won in 2026 to 437 trillion won by 2028, while SK hynix's forecast rose from 204 trillion won to 326 trillion won over the same period. SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won recently said supply shortages could persist through 2030, and JP Morgan raised its memory market size forecast by more than 8%.

Lee views April earnings as a pivotal moment for rebuilding investor confidence — if solid results emerge despite global uncertainty, he says investors should abandon the old cyclical lens and view chips through a new, structural framework.

President Trump issued Iran a 48-hour ultimatum to open the Strait of Hormuz, warning of total destruction if it refused. Iran vowed full retaliation under an "eye for an eye" stance, and reports emerged of U.S. Marines departing from Japan toward the region.

Iran's attack on Qatari LNG facilities has widened the energy crisis from oil to gas. Qatar supplies roughly 20% of the world's LNG, and prolonged disruption is expected to push prices higher.

The uncertainty hit U.S. bond markets immediately: the 10-year Treasury yield surged to 4.392%, nearing the widely watched 4.5% threshold. Bets on a rate hike topped 10% for the first time, raising fears that energy-driven inflation could derail the Fed's expected rate-cut path entirely.

Still, the hosts offered a counterpoint — that the darkest hour often precedes dawn. Noting that bond yields have been the single variable that has consistently moved President Trump's decisions over the past year, they suggested that as yields approach their ceiling, tensions could just as easily de-escalate.

President Lee Jae-myung posted on social media instructing that officials who own multiple homes or non-resident high-value properties be excluded from housing policy discussions and decisions. The day before, he had warned against buying homes with business loans and urged early voluntary repayment before penalties apply.

Of the 11 officials on the housing policy team the hosts checked, two own multiple homes, three own apartments in Gangnam, and two — including the president himself — own no home at all. The hosts read this as groundwork to preempt credibility attacks before major policy announcements, recalling how double standards among officials in the past had tainted otherwise sound housing policies.

Starting that day, a new "RIA account" launched, offering capital gains tax relief for investors who sell overseas stocks and hold domestic stocks for at least a year. Separately, in the first "super shareholder meeting week" since commercial law reforms expanded general shareholder rights, the National Pension Service has been actively exercising voting rights that favor shareholder protection over management autonomy.

Park Si-dong introduced his new book "KOSPI 10,000," pointing to shifting brokerage forecasts as evidence his optimism isn't unique — average year-end KOSPI forecasts that stood around 4,900 at the start of the year have since risen to about 7,500, even amid the current war-driven turmoil.

He cited unprecedented earnings across Samsung Electronics, SK hynix, and other sectors, arguing stock prices always eventually catch up to fundamentals even with a time lag. Beyond earnings, he listed tailwinds such as separate taxation on dividend income, treasury share cancellations, governance improvements from commercial law reform, and Hyundai Motor's expansion into robotics and autonomous driving.

He interpreted companies increasing dividends, cancelling treasury shares, and boosting investment as a signal that chronically low return-on-equity is finally improving. He also cited demand-side tailwinds: rising domestic equity allocations from the National Pension Service and retirement funds, capital returning from overseas via RIA accounts, and expectations of MSCI developed-market inclusion.

He argued Korea could compress into three years the same reforms that took Japan a decade to quintuple its stock market, making a 10,000 KOSPI achievable within the current presidential term — provided market reform measures don't stall midway and erode investor trust.