KOSPI Triggers Buy-Sidecar as AI Earnings Tailwinds Reignite SK Dual-Listing Controversy

The KOSPI remained strong after triggering an intraday buy-sidecar, rising more than 3.7% to the 5,760 level during the broadcast. Its intraday gain at one point exceeded 4%. The KOSDAQ rose about 1.9% to the 796 level.

Foreign investors made net purchases worth more than KRW 370 billion on the main exchange, while institutional buying flowed into the KOSDAQ. By contrast, foreign investors sold on the KOSDAQ, and both foreign and institutional investors sold on KONEX. Advancing stocks numbered around 420 on the KOSPI and around 990 on the KOSDAQ.

The won partially reversed its strengthening trend against the dollar, with the exchange rate rising by about KRW 2.90 to around KRW 1,328 per dollar. A series of AI-related positive developments came in after the U.S. market close, leading domestic semiconductor stocks, including Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, to gain 5% to 6%.

Market participants are watching Jensen Huang’s GTC Berlin keynote on the evening of the 21st and Meta’s and Tesla’s earnings due early the following morning. The Bank of Korea’s Monetary Policy Board is scheduled to meet on Thursday, while negotiations over memory prices for the fourth quarter of 2026 are also a key focus this week.

SpaceX said third-quarter revenue exceeded $14.5 billion, beating market expectations, while operating profit and adjusted EBITDA also came in better than expected. Capital spending was projected at a level broadly in line with market expectations. Its shares rose in after-hours trading following the results, drawing greater attention to the profitability of its AI business.

The AI and data center division stood out among its businesses. Revenue in the division rose 830% year over year, and both operating profit and adjusted EBITDA turned positive. Given the business’s heavy depreciation costs from data center investment, adjusted EBITDA was watched as an indicator of profitability.

Elon Musk said the company plans to bring an additional 10 GW of AI computing capacity online next year and increase total capacity to about 13 GW by the end of 2027. The plan is to build a large-scale training cluster by deploying 440,000 Vera Rubin-based chips by the end of the second quarter next year, while expanding power and cooling infrastructure. Musk also forecast annual recurring revenue of $500 billion to $1 trillion.

SpaceX provides data center capacity to companies including Anthropic and Google, and Musk said it could take around six months to a year to recoup the investment. However, the payback period and long-term revenue outlook are Musk’s projections and should be distinguished from actual results. The announcement showed the market that the company is continuing to expand AI investment while already generating profits from related businesses.

Super Micro Computer, a supplier of servers and rack systems, raised its first-quarter revenue forecast ahead of its earnings announcement on November 3. It lifted the outlook from $14.5 billion–$15.5 billion to $18.5 billion–$19.5 billion and raised its gross margin forecast from 10.4%–10.8% to 12%–12.5%. Shares rose more than 17% in after-hours trading after the company said AI demand was stronger than expected.

Supermicro does not make GPUs directly; it assembles components and supplies servers and data center systems. As demand for AI infrastructure rises, its revenue increases directly, and the guidance increase was cited as evidence that orders for AI infrastructure are continuing.

The broadcast also discussed the view that demand for AI businesses themselves should be distinguished from financing conditions, in comparison with CoreWeave, which has high reliance on debt. Data center investors’ share prices may be affected by interest rates and borrowing costs, but that should not be equated with a slowdown in AI demand.

The broadcast also cited a report that Amazon Web Services had taken delivery in advance of $5 billion worth of Nvidia GB300 server racks for data centers whose power supply had not yet been secured. Alongside the report that AWS would bring in an additional $3 billion worth of hardware each month, the story highlighted demand from data center operators rushing to secure equipment ahead of power infrastructure.

The union at Micron’s Taoyuan plant in Taiwan warned it could go on strike from October 22. The union reportedly demanded a performance bonus equivalent to 15% of Micron’s global operating profit.

The Taoyuan plant is a key site, accounting for about 22% of Micron’s total DRAM production capacity. Whether the dispute will spread to the Taichung plant, a major HBM production site, is also being watched. An actual production disruption could affect supply and memory prices, but a strike threat alone is not enough to conclude that supply will decline.

It would also be difficult for Korean companies to replace volumes lost in Taiwan. Domestic production lines have limited spare capacity, making it difficult to increase supply in the short term. However, the possibility of a strike could fuel market concerns about supply, and some suggested that the relative stability of Korean production sites could come into focus given Taiwan’s geopolitical and political uncertainties.

Alice, listed on the domestic KOSDAQ, fell 31% on its first day of trading before hitting the daily upper limit in the next session. Overseas media linked it to investor sentiment toward neocloud companies such as CoreWeave because it operates in the AI data center business, but the broadcast noted that Alice’s business scale and market position were not directly comparable to CoreWeave’s.

The first-day plunge gave overseas investors the impression that sentiment toward AI infrastructure companies overall was weak, while the reversal to the daily upper limit the next day also underscored the extent of short-term volatility. The discussion continued that it is difficult to judge an entire sector based solely on overseas coverage without examining individual companies’ debt and business foundations.

Nomura said memory supply constraints could last at least through 2028 and that debate over slowing AI revenue could stem from customer shifts, seasonality or differences in measurement, rather than weakening demand. It also viewed concerns about competition from China as excessive. However, some said strong price targets alone were not enough to assure a share-price rebound, and that new earnings evidence and a catalyst for a shift in investor sentiment were needed.

Elon Musk cited reports in the Korean media and said he was in contact with Korean semiconductor suppliers, also discussing plans for a semiconductor plant targeting production of 1 million wafers per month. Related reports suggested the plant could be completed as early as 2030. If the construction and equipment procurement schedules take shape, they could create new demand for Korean materials, parts and equipment companies.

However, semiconductor manufacturing requires not only massive capital but also process technology and supply chains built up over many years. Market interpretations differ over whether Musk will actually begin production or whether the plan is a negotiating tactic to secure memory at lower prices from Samsung Electronics, SK hynix or Micron. It was also noted that SpaceX’s satellite and communications businesses would find it difficult to use Chinese components on security and national-security grounds, and that Korea could supply them at lower prices than Japan.

For Korea’s semiconductor ecosystem, this presents both an opportunity and the risk of a new competitor entering the market. More customers would benefit materials, parts and equipment companies, but pursuing short-term orders without long-term technology partnerships and growth plans could force domestic suppliers into price competition. Some argued that Samsung Electronics and SK hynix should invest alongside their partners and expand business with them to strengthen the ecosystem.

Expectations for earnings improvements in the materials, parts and equipment sector are also rising as semiconductor capital investment expands. However, some stocks that have surged are valued more highly than global peers, making selectivity important. As during Japan’s export restrictions, developing domestic technology requires more than supporting share prices: it also requires research and development investment, government support, and purchasing and cooperation by major Korean companies.

South Korean exports from October 1 to 20 rose 105% year over year. Semiconductor exports increased 225% over the same period, driving the overall growth in exports. It was noted that figures compared with the previous month should also be examined to assess recent trends, rather than relying only on year-over-year growth rates.

Adjusted for the number of business days, semiconductor exports rose about 3%, from $4.61 billion between September 1 and 20 to $4.74 billion between October 1 and 20. Memory export prices fell about 2% from the previous month, though trends varied by product. DRAM prices rose around 2% and NAND flash prices increased 26%, while MCP prices fell around 9%.

A Bloomberg analysis was also presented comparing export growth in Korea and Taiwan, shifted forward by six months, with U.S. 12-month forward EPS growth. The close relationship between the two indicators was interpreted to mean that semiconductor exports from Korea and Taiwan could serve as leading indicators of U.S. corporate earnings. The argument was that robust semiconductor exports could also support the earnings outlook for U.S. companies tied to AI investment in the period ahead.

The prospect that memory supply shortages could persist through 2028 and the expansion of data center construction were cited as grounds for semiconductor demand. Nomura maintained its Buy ratings, setting price targets of KRW 670,000 for Samsung Electronics and KRW 4.7 million for SK hynix. However, some said the analysis largely repeated previously known arguments about supply constraints and AI demand, without offering much new evidence.

The Bank of Korea’s Monetary Policy Board meeting on Thursday was expected to leave the base rate unchanged, with the probability close to 100%. The key question is how strongly the BOK will refer to the possibility of a future rate hike. The U.S. interest-rate path remains uncertain, while overseas bond-market instability continues, including French government bond yields approaching 5%.

Attention is focused less on the rate hold itself than on the BOK’s message about the future policy path and its response to financial-market uncertainty. The host argued that the BOK should closely monitor developments in Korean and global financial markets while signaling that it will respond flexibly to conditions rather than cling to a fixed position.

The Ministry of Health and Welfare is accepting advance applications for support with young people’s first insurance premiums. President Lee Jae-myung said, in effect, that eligible people should receive broad support and that limiting benefits to applicants would leave some people without access. Finding ways to support young people who have difficulty obtaining information about the program or do not have time to apply has emerged as a policy challenge.

If Solidigm goes public, the ownership structure running from SK hynix through its U.S. subsidiary to Solidigm will become more complex. Critics say that adding another listed company to a multilayered structure of subsidiaries, sub-subsidiaries and lower-tier entities makes it difficult for the market to properly value each company, and that this is one cause of the Korea discount.

A dual listing involves spinning off and listing a core business built by a parent company. By way of comparison, if HYBE were to separate its BTS business into a standalone company, existing shareholders might not fully benefit from the new company’s performance, even though they had supported the company’s growth. Spinning off businesses whenever they achieve results weakens existing shareholders’ incentive to trust the company and invest for the long term.

Solidigm accounts for a substantial share of SK hynix’s revenue, and the two companies are also linked through transactions in which Solidigm receives wafers from hynix, makes products and sells them. After a spinoff, wafer prices and profit allocation could vary according to the interests of shareholders in each company. Critics argue that an explanation is needed for why outside funding would be necessary if the fundraising target were KRW 10 trillion to KRW 20 trillion, when hynix has the cash capacity to invest directly.

The commentary targeted SK Group’s governance structure beyond the issue of listing an individual subsidiary. It argued that Chairman Chey Tae-won holds a limited number of SK hynix shares directly while controlling the group through SK, making it unclear how the performance of a core company benefits the ultimate controlling shareholder and ordinary shareholders. It said that to become a genuine shareholder, Chey should directly hold hynix shares and take the straightforward approach of increasing shareholder value through treasury-share cancellations and dividends.

The market’s response to dual-listing controversies with share-price declines, unlike in the past, was interpreted as a sign that shareholder awareness is changing. The commentary stressed that decisions by major companies such as SK hynix and Samsung Electronics affect the broader market and that they should build trust through transparent governance and shareholder returns. It also warned that decisions that undermine shareholder value, as in the past LG Chem split, can weigh on a company’s share price and reputation over the long term.

Lee Kwang-soo agreed with the president’s remarks that welfare programs such as youth pension support should rely less on applications and ensure that assistance reaches everyone who qualifies. He argued that excluding people who are too busy to apply or unaware of the program runs counter to the basic purpose of welfare. He stressed that expanding eligibility and reducing gaps in coverage should be the starting point for policy.

An e-petition to the National Assembly discussed on the broadcast calls for the introduction of a mandatory tender offer system to protect 14 million investors. The number of signatories passed 42,000 during the broadcast and later rose above 44,000, with a target of 50,000. Viewers were urged to take part in calls for institutional reform and keep the discussion on shareholder protection going.

At the end, the broadcast featured a story from a viewer struggling with investment losses in stocks. The viewer had invested with family members and was trying to reassure those around them despite the losses, prompting Lee Kwang-soo to say that investors’ anxiety and loneliness should not be ignored. The segment closed with the message that, alongside share prices and earnings, the burdens investors face should also be considered.